Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the black sheep of the family whose name is synonymous with the monarchy in Democratic politics, is challenging President Biden in the Democratic primary for the 2024 presidential nomination.
RFK Jr., the son of former Sen. Robert F. Kennedy (D-N.Y.) and the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy has little chance of defeating an incumbent president in order to win the nomination, particularly given the extreme positions he takes on most issues. Nevertheless, RFK Jr.’s entry into the race could undermine an already vulnerable President Biden prior to the general election.
The most recent general election polls, albeit premature, demonstrate the precarious position of President Biden. A recent horserace poll places former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, in a virtual dead contest with the incumbent president, who trails his predecessor by one point, 44% to 43%, among registered voters nationwide.
In turn, if RFK Jr. engages in an aggressively negative primary campaign against Biden, it could cripple him in the general election, similar to what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016 when she confronted Donald Trump after a tough Democratic primary race against an outsider.
RFK Jr.’s candidacy is still a long chance, in part because his issue stances are far from the Democratic Party’s mainstream, with one notable exception: the environment. Many of his climate positions, especially regarding renewable energy and land conservation, align with the platform of his party. He was once considered for the position of Environmental Protection Agency administrator for his efforts to protect the Hudson River, which have garnered him genuine praise from the left.
In contrast, RFK Jr. is a fringe politician in many other respects and holds a number of dangerous beliefs. He is a prominent COVID-19 vaccine skeptic and government conspiracy theorist who was banned from social media platforms for disseminating “dangerous misinformation,” as described by members of his own family.
There is a component of RFK Jr.’s message that resonates with the beliefs of the Democratic Party’s far-left wing, notably his populist economic positions. He is anti-corporate power and has railed against government bank bailouts, which may resonate with many leftists who are generally indifferent to President Biden.
In fact, when announcing his candidacy for president, RFK Jr. resolved to “end the corrupt merger of state and corporate power that threatens to impose a new form of corporate feudalism on our country.”
Furthermore, RFK Jr. has a distinctive asset: his last name. Despite the fact that many of his siblings and living relatives have disavowed him and are openly supporting Biden, RFK Jr. will likely still benefit from the family name.
A recent poll found that 14% of 2020 Biden voters would vote for RFK Jr. in the Democratic primary, which is quite extraordinary given his lack of political experience and record, and suggests that a significant portion of RFK Jr.’s support is based on name recognition alone.
Separately, while RFK Jr.’s anti-vaccine stances may be abhorrent to many Democratic voters, over one-quarter (26%) of Americans (including 31% of independents and even 12% of Democrats) report being unwilling or uncertain to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
Again, there is no evidence that RFK Jr. has a realistic opportunity to win the Democratic primary. However, if he is able to attract enough anti-Biden Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who are government skeptics, he may be able to garner around 25 percent of the primary vote, which would be more than enough to hurt President Biden in the general election.
The last incumbent president to face a significant primary challenge was Jimmy Carter in 1980, who was challenged by RFK Jr.’s uncle, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. Carter was an unpopular incumbent whose first term was marked by high inflation and geopolitical crises, eerily resembling that of President Biden.
Carter was able to withstand Kennedy’s challenge, but he limped into his general election contest against Ronald Reagan and ultimately succumbed to one of the greatest American landslides, winning only six states and 49 electoral votes.
Ted Kennedy was undoubtedly a formidable opponent, and his legacy is among the greatest in American politics. He served in the Senate for decades, garnering a reputation as a progressive champion and a bipartisan dealmaker, and is regarded as an extraordinary leader by members of both parties.
In virtually every way, RFK Jr. could not be more different from his uncle. Nonetheless, the younger Kennedy has the potential to follow in his uncle’s footsteps: he could disrupt the Democratic Party’s primary process at a time when the party’s leader is weak.
Even if everything goes perfectly for the outcast of America’s most renowned political dynasty, he won’t win the primary. But RFK Jr. could very well confound the situation for President Biden, who would benefit from a cakewalk primary before a likely rematch with Donald Trump in the general election.
